Tuesday, March 27, 2007

Stock Market Predictions

We've covered stock picking social networks like Stockpickr, Bullpoo, and other communities regarding investing. However, TechCrunch broke an interesting tidbit about how a fairly mainstream finance website, Marketwatch, is allowing for the masses to determine whether or not a stock is going to go up or down.

So far from what I've seen it seems that Marketwatch users are more bullish than bearish today (3/27). I guess we should wait to see what happens in the market.
However, more importantly, while some Marketwatch users could game the system (by disabling cookies), the sentiment tracker could actually be a self fulfilling prophecy with people flocking to the stocks that are predicted to rise. While its an interesting concept if we were talking about sports, I think with so many people in the stock market, Marketwatch needs to find a way to keep the results somewhat fair (by forcing people to register before they vote). Then again, it probably only matters who is coming to the site.

At this point, the data is probably meaningless. However, just like the social networks, this new Marketwatch feature is an opportunity to watch to see if your stock is getting bashed or being pumped. Only over time will we be able to determine its accuracy as a secondary market.

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